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21 August 2008 @ 09:30 pm
Yes, the weather IS lovey, isn't it.  
It was already an especially rainy August BEFORE Fay. The frogs are singing ecstatically right now. I feel the need to go somewhere sunny like Florida Hawaii.

This storm is something else. It's defied almost every projection for it and has in general behaved as if someone were throwing D10s to determine it's path.

'Course Einstein has assured us that God does not play dice so that can't be it.

Right now it's past my bedtime and I still don't know if I'll be going to work tomorrow. Nobody seems to know when the higher winds are going to get here and when they will be over. The 35mph gusts on the way home were FUN! Especially when I was sharing the road with people who got their licenses out of Cracker Jack boxes and had never driven in bad weather before. I want a "If you can't drive in rain move to Arizona" bumper sticker.

Even the weather men are getting frustrated. I love "Forecaster Avila" at the National Weather Service. In his 11am briefing he starts out with "THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT. FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY." Then further on says "GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF FAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST...A MOTION WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING BUT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET. NEVERTHELESS...THE DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN GIVES ME NO OPTION BUT TO FORECAST A TURN TO THE LEFT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN SOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS."

Can't you just feel the grumpiness? The "Make up your damn mind and do SOMETHING" underlying subtext and the desire to take a fire axe to the computer running the forecast models?

ETA @ 12:05a: The 11pm forecast by KNABB is just as good.
"FAY HAS STILL REFUSED TO DECIDEDLY BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD AS WE AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING [...] EVEN THOUGH WE SAID THIS LAST NIGHT...AND IT DID NOT HAPPEN...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FAY SHOULD START TRULY MOVING WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS"

Honest, it will.

I'm up because every time I drifted off to sleep the wind would pick up and wake me up and I knew a new advisory would be up. Going to try again now that I've checked it.
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